Welcome back to Unusual Flow, your go-to source for analyzing incoming option flow strategies from whale traders. Breaking down high-volume trades and providing insights into what the big players are doing, helping you capitalize on unusual market moves. Did that sound like an advertisement, it kind of did right? Lord take me back to waking up at 3 AM to George Lopez theme song blaring on my TV…
Not sure who let me ramble this long but let’s get into the action:
Notable Flow:
BTI 0.00%↑ 36C 12/20 Exp
AFRM 0.00%↑ 75C 01/17/2025 Exp
MNST 0.00%↑ 52.5C STO 11/15 Exp
MSTR 0.00%↑ Bullish Risk Reversal: 250C BTO & 220P STO 11/15 Exp.
BTI 0.00%↑ 36C 12/20 Exp
Vol: 12,190 OI: 906 Avg: $1.08 Prem: $1,322,193
The stock saw its highest call buying in the past 30 days. Over 12k contracts were traded on this chain, and less than 1k were traded in OI. The updated OI tomorrow will tell us how many contracts were held overnight. In addition, the 36C 11/15 Exp and 37C 12/20 Exp saw significant buying. British Tobacco announced today that it completed a share buyback from Goldman Sachs.
BTI is a major player in the global tobacco industry, headquartered in London. It produces and sells cigarettes, tobacco, and nicotine products. Few things in life are certain, it is our job to capitalize on these things. Death, taxes, and nicotine addictions. The chart seems to have no significant patterns although it does present somewhat of a base forming in this range right below the 10DMA which has now caught up to current price levels. A hold of this area remains pivotal to further success in the following weeks as this trader looks to have caught the bottom.
AFRM 0.00%↑ 75 C 01/17/2025 Exp
Vol: 14,618 OI: 8,269 Avg: $1.81 Prem: $2,650,481
Another stock that had its highest call buying in the past 30 days. In the case of the 75C, Whales are betting on a 52% OTM move with 95 days to expiration. This chain already had a high OI with over 8k contracts being held, but today’s volume almost doubled that number; it is just a matter of checking the new OI tomorrow to see how many contracts were held. Additionally, there were buys on other call chains, such as the 52.5C 12/20 Exp, 50C 11/01 Exp, and 60C 11/01 Exp, among others. Today, Affirm received an upgrade from Goldman Sachs with a new price target of $54.00/Share from $46.00/Share.
Having broken out of this monthly/weekly cup and handle formation, Affirm looks to break out of this massive base into the fair value gap (FVG) above 50.00. A popular name all year long as traders across twitter have clamored over small-caps and rotational names, AFRM is in the camp of leaders. Comparisons are being made to Carvana from December of last year and they do look eerily similar before the massive breakout. Buy now pay later grows more popular with each day giving the business model some ground to stand on. Longs will want to see this 40 spot hold as well as the closest moving average’s providing support in anticipation of a continued breakout of this pattern.
MNST 0.00%↑ 52.5C STO 11/15 Exp
Vol: 5,054 OI: 323 Avg: $1.55 Prem: $781,568
Over 4k contracts were traded at the Bid on this chain, causing the net call premium to trade negative. The calls are only 2% OTM, which is risky for these whales since the contracts must expire and are worthless for the trader to collect the premium. If the contracts go ITM, the Whale must close the trade by repurchasing the contracts and paying the extra premium.
Monster Beverage is a leading energy drink company known for its Monster Energy brand. While it has strong revenue growth and market dominance, traders may be bearish in the short term as a result of it’s overpriced valuation paired with technical weakness & increase in competition. Celsius continues to claim some of their market share as the drink has become increasingly popular among the audience. In regards to the chart itself, MNST has failed this pivot level of 52.5 on multiple occasions now for the last couple months giving this trader confidence in his chosen strike to sell for premium. While few moving average’s remain below as supportive, the 50-wkMA is overhead acting as resistance and not budging.
MSTR 0.00%↑ Bullish Risk Reversal: 250C BTO & 220P STO 11/15 Exp.
This trader opened 500 contracts of the 220P on credit and used that credit to buy 500 contracts of the 250C. This trader is betting on the stock price increasing and volatility increasing or remaining flat. If the stock price goes above $250, the PnL will be positive; if it trades between $220 and $250, the PnL will be at break-even, and below $220, the PnL will be negative.
An exciting morning for Micro Strategy bulls, until it wasn’t. The stock opened soaring early on in the session after a strong weekend from Bitcoin climbing over 6.7% at daily highs before reversing to -3.4% at the time of writing this. The asset itself is largely correlated to Bitcoin and has a similar chart especially the high time frame cup & handle you see all over FinTwit. Being that this is such a short turn around trade, Mr. Whale would like to see this kick into high gear and continue it’s breakout sooner rather than later.
Alright folks… God speed ahead and let’s hope we see some good moves the rest of the week continuing to climb the wall of fear and provide us with bountiful returns. Thanks for checking us out and as always, if you enjoyed the read, likes are greatly appreciated.
All the best,
Kian, Jersace, & Jon