China Stim and Lisa Su Comeback?
Notable Flow 12/11
HELLOOOOO — it has been a bit of a break for us as we enjoyed the holidays with our families for a nice little (much needed) break. We are pleased to be back and look forward to ending the year strong with you all behind us. If you have been following Kian for some time now, you may have noticed his stellar performance on his Dub Invest portfolio UNUSUAL outperforming not only the indices YTD, but also many other “traders” such as Nancy Pelosi. Round of applause my friend.
You can find his dub invest portfolio here.
Alright let’s dive in.
Notable Flow:
BA 0.00%↑ 225C 06/20/2025 Exp
ASHR 0.00%↑ 29C 02/21/2025 Exp
AMD 0.00%↑ 140C 09/19/2025 Exp
AMGN 0.00%↑ 290C 12/20 Exp
BA 0.00%↑ 225C 06/20/2025 Exp
Vol: 6,719 OI: 417 Avg: $4.17 Prem: $2,800,863
The stock has had a 20% recovery since its November lows. Despite reporting lower deliveries due to strikes, the company announced it would resume production of the 737 MAX. Whales did not hesitate today and opened calls within 15 minutes of the market opening, trading over 5k contracts at the Ask for over $2 million of a chain with 191 days before expiration and a strike that is 35% OTM.
Having broken out of the downtrend a couple weeks back, the strength in BA has been relatively notable as the stock has taken a beating throughout the course of the year amid multiple allegations/litigations etc. Needless to say, there is a positive regression in order. I notice a falling wedge break on the chart which is a bullish pattern as many of you may know and can warrant a good bit of upside. Overhead moving average’s are notable in the fact that they can act as resistance until reclaimed providing support at that point. This weeks session has not only mounted and held the 10wk-MA, but we have also reclaimed the 20wk-MA as well. Given the fact that this has plenty of time behind the trade, an entry isn’t particularly time pressing, however it is worth monitoring the OI daily to confirm the aforementioned whale maintains this position.
ASHR 0.00%↑ 29C 02/21/2025 Exp
Vol: 66,323 OI: 44,700 Avg: $0.92 Prem: $9,341,392
This is the second day in a row that Whales hit this chain. Over 40k contracts were opened yesterday, and the OI was carried out. Today, over 65k contracts were traded with 50k contracts at the Ask, the other 15k contracts had no-side, and the chain had a 17% multi-leg volume. The call net premium reached its highest level for the second consecutive day in the past 30 days.
Not immediate notable chart patterns here but you can make a case for a few if you really dig into the teeth on this one. We’ve got a large supply zone located at 29 which has rejected multiple times throughout the year with the occasional pop above as we saw months previous around September. Support located just below at 26.30 and change. I’ve marked intermediate upside targets if this were to go itm and continue a run above the 200wk-MA. This could simply be a “news trade” based around the China stimmy that everyone is clamoring over on FinTwit but nobody knows what will really happen. Consider it a gamble.
AMD 0.00%↑ 140C 09/19/2025 Exp
Vol: 1,039 OI: 888 Avg: $17.96 Prem: $1,866,313
The stock is down 6.5% YTD, which makes it one of the worst semiconductor performers in terms of ROI, and it is getting close to its 52-week lows. However, these Whales see this as an opportunity to load calls that have 282 days before expiration and are only 10 strikes OTM. Over 1k contracts were traded at the Ask with a total premium of $1.88 million.
What once was a sympathy play for everything and anything NVDA or semiconductor related, has now become known to the meme community as the “Advanced Money Destroyer”. However, when there’s blood, there is opportunity. As previously mentioned the stock is DOWN YTD. Yes, shocking. They have detached themselves from sympathy of one of the markets YTD leaders in NVDA and continues to trend lower looking for a bottom. 130-131 was previously a big overhead resistance spot and is attempting at holding this spot as support in recent weeks/months. As it stands, this mark has provided good buying opps as a dip on a few occasions and this time it remains to be seen. Just under a year until expiration, this trade could have long term legs. Are you buying this dip, anon?
AMGN 0.00%↑ 290C 12/20 Exp
Vol: 5,085 OI: 976 Avg: $0.74 Prem: $450,777
The first trade happened around 1:00 pm ET when the whale opened over 3.5k contracts paying $250k in premium. After that, the chain kept getting repeated hits, and the total daily volume got close to 6k with 5.4 contracts at the Ask. The IV increased from 28% to 33% in the chain, making us assume that most of the volume was BTO.
Health/Bio stocks are popularly regarded as news trades or event driven catalysts where they receive large drops/pops. Could there be one on the horizon? On the daily time frame we notice a relative bull flag forming on support from the recent drop and maintain of 270 spot. Assuming AMGN can reclaim the 10SMA and push towards the 20, these contracts could surge towards the strike chosen of 290 with upside targets marked in blue. However, it is worth recognizing this trade only has until next Friday for expiration meaning this needs to kick into gear quickly before theta begins to eat away the premiums at an accelerated rate.
Hope you guys enjoyed the read and that you missed us as much as we missed you. Let’s finish the year strong and start off 2025 HOT. As always, likes are greatly appreciated, and we are always happy to chat with you in the subscriber chat.
Cheers folks,
Kian, Jersace, & Jon