Follow the Money
Full Deep Dive of Latest Idea + Flow Grab
Alright everybody gather around, take a seat get comfortable.
Busy day on the flow desk with some real conviction trades showing up. Let’s break it down.
The Headline Stuff
The monster of the day was that AMZN sweep. Over 10,600 contracts on the 250 calls dated all the way out to August, filled at $10.76. That’s north of $11M parked into a single name with a six-month runway. That’s not a hedge, that’s a thesis. When you see that kind of size on a mega cap reaching out that far, someone has serious conviction AMZN hasn’t topped out.
On the other side, IWM saw nearly 19,000 puts bought at the 254 strike for March. This is worth paying attention to because small caps have been on a tear. The Russell 2000 is up over 8% on the year, hitting all-time highs, while the S&P is only up about 2%. Someone is saying this small cap run is overextended and hedging accordingly. Pair that with the ARKK 70 puts (10,850 contracts) and you’re getting a pretty clear read: protection is being bought against the more speculative end of the market heading into March. The flow is there.
INTC continues to show up. Over 15,600 calls on the 55 strike out to April. That name just keeps attracting interest, and if you’ve been following us, you know how we feel about that one already.
ORCL was active with 13,000+ contracts on the 170 calls expiring this week. ORCL ripped nearly 10% yesterday on a sell-side upgrade and the broader software bounce, so this is someone chasing that momentum with a short-dated, aggressive bet.
Now the PLTR puts caught my eye. 3,500 contracts on the 130 strike expiring 2/27. PLTR just crushed Q4 earnings last week, beat top and bottom line, guided FY26 revenue to $7.19B (61% growth, absolutely lapped consensus), and Alex Karp called it the best results in tech in the last decade. Stock popped hard on the print. But it’s still down about 20% on the year, and someone is positioning for a post-earnings fade or hedging a long. That’s a name to watch closely over the next couple weeks as the dust settles.
For the puts sold column, which is where a lot of the smart money likes to hide: RIG had over 20,000 puts sold at the 5 strike out to May. That’s someone saying “I will happily own this at $5 or collect premium trying.” UBER saw nearly 15,000 puts sold at 65, and SCHW had over 10,000 puts sold at the 90 strike. That cluster of institutional put selling tells you where the floor bids are.
Broader context matters here too. Dow just crossed 50,000 for the first time last week. Retail sales came in flat today, missing expectations, which pushed bonds higher and is now getting the market to price in the possibility of a third Fed cut this year. Jobs data hits Wednesday (delayed from the funding lapse), CPI tomorrow as well. It's a loaded week, and the flow is reflecting that.
What the flow is really telling us, how we’re positioned, and what we’re watching next... as well as a deep dive on one of our newest equity positions.
🔒 The full breakdown, including the highlighted names, and the setups we’re tracking into this week’s data, is for paid subscribers only.
If you’ve been sitting on the fence, today’s a good day to hop off it.
