More bite in Semiconductors?
Notable Flow 9/26
Good afternoon folks, let’s dive in.
Notable Flow:
TSM 0.00%↑ 210C 04/17/2025 Exp.
SM 0.00%↑ 32.5P 05/16/2025 Exp.
LLY 0.00%↑ 1020C STO 10/18 Exp.
WULF 0.00%↑ 4.5P STO 10/25 Exp.
TSM 0.00%↑ 210C 04/17/2025 Exp.
Vol: 605 OI: 107 Avg: $13.50 Prem: $816,871
This Whale is expecting more upside by trading 600 contracts at the Ask and paying $810k. The company recently posted its August revenue report, which showed a 33% increase compared to August 2023. The stock is having a great day after Micron’s earnings, and the forecast suggested strong AI demand. The company secured chip deals for smartphones with Apple and Google. Additionally, it received good reviews on its Xeon processors, which Intel is outsourcing.
The chart looks explosive as well nearing all-time-highs with strength. With the semi industry finding legs again TSM has the potential to be a leader alongside NVDA. Moving average’s trending up and a potential break of all time highs around the corner. Solid flow pull and idea from this whale.
SM 0.00%↑ 32.5P 05/16/2025 Exp.
Vol: 1,527 OI: - Avg: $2.25 Prem: $343,438
This trader is placing a bearish bet after the stock is already down around 6% today. Believing in more potential downside by adding opening puts that are 15% OTM in a chain that had no previous OI. 1.5k contracts were trading at the Ask, causing the net put premium to spike and reach its highest level since the past 14 days. Additionally, the stock had the highest volume of options for the week.
Shown is a supportive trendline from lows currently breaking down. An immediate target can be seen as the 200-week just above the strike chosen. Have to imagine this whale is seeing something similar and chasing weakness with the broader market also at all-time-highs.
LLY 0.00%↑ 1020C STO 10/18 Exp.
Vol: 3,089 OI: 278 Avg: $1.44 Prem: $445,223
This Whale is placing a bearish bet by selling calls on credit. Around 3k volumes were traded at the bid in this chain. This was labeled as a “floor trade,” meaning that the trade took place on the floor of an exchange. This floor trader speculates that the stock price will not exceed $1020 by expiration.
While many call for Eli Lily (LLY) to reach the fabled mark of 1,000/share, this trader believes otherwise with some extra cushion above. As of late LLY has not traded alongside the broader market amid this rally but rather shown signs of weakness ultimately failing on multiple occasions above 960. Losing immediate moving average’s such as the 10 & 20 DMA certainly raises concerns for bull cases moving forward. We also see that it rests at the bottom of the bear flag channel with plenty of room below if it were to break.
WULF 0.00%↑ 4.5P STO 10/25 Exp.
Vol: 16,517 OI: 4,299 Avg: $0.25 Prem: $413,297
By writing these puts, this trader placed a bullish bet, expecting the stock to trade above $4.5 by expiration. 16.5k contracts were traded in this chain today, 15.7k of which were traded at the Bid, causing the net put premium to drop sharply. The stock has significantly increased options activity this week, with crypto names starting to heat up and gather more attention as the last quarter of the year approaches.
A lot of this option activity increase can be accredited to the recent strength seen in Bitcoin as it chugs along the cup and handle pattern and trades around the 200DMA. As a result, among other factors, WULF has recently broken out of it’s downtrend and remains relatively strong all things considered. More of a speculative asset in the industry, WULF also provides other services outside of Bitcoin mining such as CORZ. This whale will want to monitor the future action on Bitcoin closely as the next leg prepares itself.
Thanks for joining us today and if you enjoyed the read, likes are greatly appreciated. See you all tomorrow for this week’s recap.
Cheers,
Kian, Jersace, & Jon