Q1 Wrapped
Quarter End & Daily Flows
The Setup
The tape walked in hot this morning and the reason was sitting right there in the headline. Iran’s president came out and said what the market wanted to hear: we’re ready to end the war, but want guarantees. That one sentence flipped the switch on risk appetite across the board and the flow sheet confirmed it before the opening bell even rang. But if you’ve been reading this letter, you know one headline doesn’t close a chapter. It opens a negotiation. And negotiations, especially ones involving the Strait of Hormuz, have a way of dragging out longer than the market’s attention span.
Before we dive into the flow, let’s frame what today actually means in the broader context. This is the last trading day of Q1 2026. Everything that happened this quarter, the tariff whipsaws, the AI capex debate, the energy thesis, the VIX staying elevated for weeks on end, all of it culminates in how institutions are positioned heading into the next three months. End-of-quarter flow is always interesting because it captures both the window dressing and the real conviction bets that are being carried forward. Today’s sheet is worth reading closely because it tells you what the smart money believes is coming, not what already happened. Before moving forward, it is important to note that at the time of writing, the JPM Collar has yet to be announced.
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March Performance Recap
Now let’s talk about how we actually performed this month, because the scoreboard is the only thing that doesn’t lie.
March was a battlefield. The macro environment was hostile to overnight holds for most of the month. Tariff headlines whipsawed indices on a daily basis. The VIX stayed elevated. Economic data was mixed at best. And yet, looking at the closed positions for March, we came out the other side in strong shape because we adapted. This was not a month for holding through earnings or riding multi-week swings. This was a month for quick, conviction-based entries and disciplined exits, and the results reflect that approach.
The headliner was ARM, and it wasn’t close. We scaled out of the 145 calls across three separate exits at gains of 178%, 311%, and 770%. That last exit was nearly a nine-bagger on the original cost basis. When a position works that well, you don’t need to hit on everything else. NOW 115C returned 196% in a clean trade that caught the software rally before it stalled. LITE 700P delivered 152% on the downside, proving that the put side can be just as profitable when you read the flow correctly. META 540C doubled. RKLB 75C ran 88%. PLTR 145C closed at 86%. UAL 105C gave us 80% on a name that was tricky to time but rewarded patience. VRT, SPY puts, USO, INTC May calls, RGTI puts, MSFT, VELO, and NFLX puts all contributed winning trades to the ledger.
Were there losers? Of course. INTC April 50C gave back 56% and that one stung because the thesis was right but the timing was early. UUUU dropped 50% as the uranium narrative cooled. SEI lost 49%. BE and COIN both closed red. NVDA had two losing entries, one at negative 24% and another at negative 5%, which is a reminder that even the most liquid name in the market can chop you up when volatility compresses at the wrong time. VG technically closed red as well, but that one deserves a footnote. The trade worked exactly as intended. The entry was clean, the flow confirmed the thesis, and the move came. But broader market volatility created noise that led to a mismanaged exit on my end. That’s not a flow miss, that’s a discipline lesson, and those are the ones that stick with you going into the next quarter.
The final count for March: 17 winners, 8 losers.That’s a win rate above 65% in a market that was actively trying to shake out both sides of the tape every single session. The average winner significantly outpaced the average loser, which is what matters more than the win rate itself. When your best trade returns 770% and your worst loss is 56%, the math works in your favor even if you’re wrong more often than you’d like.
