Shake n Bake
Notable Flow 8/14
Good Evening San Francisco?
I think I’ll stick to stocks, I never really did a good Ron Burgundy impression but man that guy has some good hair. Speaking of hair, the price action thus far today has been pretty hairy. Decent moves for both sides intraday (degen 0dte players) post CPI print which pretty much came in line with expectations.
Retail sales come in tomorrow and as Le Shrub noted this morning, marked the interim top on 7/16 the last time they came in. Just something of note while you go enjoy a glass of bourbon tonight.
Let’s dive into today’s early morning flow pull.
Notable Flow:
ARCH 0.00%↑ 140C STO 2/21/25 Exp
ALB 0.00%↑ 60P 10/18 Exp
CBRE 0.00%↑ 105P STO 9/20 Exp
SBUX 0.00%↑ 100C 11/15 Exp
UPS 0.00%↑ 120P STO 10/18 Exp
ARCH 0.00%↑ 140C STO 2/21/25 Exp
Volume: 6,001 OI: 4 Premium: $3.67 Fill: 6.11
Nearly 13% OTM Mr. Whale is drawing an interim line in the sand for upside on the most recent leg up. Selling calls is typically a short term resistance so important to note the 140 mark on your chart regardless of bias. Yes this is bearish, however, if it were to see 146 levels again, the whale would be in trouble.
Looking at the chart, the top was in early June and has been slipping since. There is more downside to be considered here of course as with any stock yet bulls have the 200 wk MA just below current levels at 118 and change. We will be keeping an eye on the OI as with every other flow to see how the whale is doing at a later date.
ALB 0.00%↑ 60P 10/18 Exp
Volume: 1,608 OI: 157 Premium: $330k Fill: 2.04
Coming in with two sequential orders, we see another bearish whale here with clear direction to downside. In addition, the net bearish outlook you can see the call positions have not changed as equity remains in range yet put buying has skewed heavily to the upside.
Definitely can see where his thought process is here as the daily chart shows virtually no support in sight on this time frame in relativity to the expiration being within 2 months time as all moving averages are trending downwards.
CBRE 0.00%↑ 105P STO 9/20 Exp
Volume: 2.006 OI: 161 Premium: $265k Fill: 1.32
Large influx on put selling assuming there is an interim bottom in the commercial real-estate sector after seeing an 8% drop alongside the broader market in recent days to post earnings support levels of 105 coinciding with the strike chosen to sell.
As previously mentioned, the chart has a strong post earnings gap (PEG) support around 105 which is where it bottomed post market drop. Since this mark, the stock has surged 6% from local lows into resistance looking to retest or make new ATH’s.
SBUX 0.00%↑ 100C 11/15 Exp
Volume: 2,025 OI: 452 Premium: $620k Fill: 3.06
Everybody drinks coffee. Pretty sizable flow coming in only a few days after the Chipotle CEO left and joined big coffee over at Starbucks which rallied the stock over 18% on the news.
Starbucks was once 25% red YTD but has since rallied back to nearly even (-4% YTD). Market clearly thinks this is pretty big news and will be telling for the longer lasting reaction to see if it can push over 96 with strength towards the strike chosen of 100. Not much from a pattern standpoint outside of relative strength off news, albeit the stock is red today by 4.11% at the time of writing this piece. Decent bit of time behind this with a notable 200 wk MA overhead resting at 97.59.
UPS 0.00%↑ 120P STO 10/18 Exp
Volume: 2,615 OI: 1,505 Premium: $648k Fill: 2.48
Another STO play here as Mr. Whale is betting this transport company has bottomed after a recent decline of nearly 17% alongside the broader market weakness in recent weeks. Choosing to sell the 120s 5% OTM as his support could assist a potential equity long.
Seemingly another case of bottom fishing here, the chart doesn’t look horrible but I’m also not jumping out of my seat interested in it as well. Transports have been laggards all year long and trading horribly so may be time for them to have their moment. The goal here is for the whale to collect premium until expiration with price staying above the strike moving higher. Notable level on this name is 133 as it was previously support and has acted as resistance ever since losing this value with trending down moving averages.
Wrapping up today’s segment here and early into the day. Tomorrow we will have Jon officially joining the team to include some more value by way of his thoughts and what he sees from a fundamental perspective on longer time frame plays. Looking forward to the value he will be bringing to you all. Hope you all enjoyed today’s read, likes are always appreciated. Cheers and have a great rest of your day/night.
Peace, love, flow.
$CBRE looks great