Morning, family - let’s dive right in. Markets are dialed into every breath of data today, and here's what’s shaping up:
U.S. stock futures are drifting cautiously higher, buoyed by rumors of rate cuts as a recent jobs revision showed nearly 911,000 positions were overestimated, reinforcing the narrative that the labor market is losing steam and giving the Fed more cover to ease later this year.
Nebius is the superstar of the day, jumping over 35–50% after locking in a $17.4 billion AI infrastructure deal with Microsoft—this name is flashing on every scanner today.
Teck Resources is rallying too, up 9–13%, following news of its merger with Anglo American to form a massive copper powerhouse - a clear play on EV and AI infrastructure needs.
UnitedHealth Group is quietly up ~4% after reiterating its 2025 profit outlook amidst strong Medicare trends.
Apple is a bit soft today, down about 0.7%, even as the tape buzzes about its upcoming iPhone 17 lineup launch - market’s cautious till the event hits.
Bonus global flavor: Japan’s Nikkei popped to 44,000 for the first time ever, riding trade optimism and news of U.S. auto tariff rollbacks. So any Japan-exposed plays need your radar on them today.
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Yesterday in the chat I called out the only trade opened of the day with IREN 10/17 30C. Overnight we got the aforementioned NBIS news sending this entire sector bonkers and our position is nearing 100% into close. I wanted to take this moment to congratulate all who entered. Moving on…
Indices
SPY Daily
Above all relative moving average’s, within the balanced STD range, and ready for new highs barring negative data with PPI / CPI later this week. SPY is stable and contained, just under all-time highs. The market’s waiting on data, but the trend’s intact. If upcoming inflation prints stay tame, we could break higher - if they come hot, expect some chop/drop. All eyes glued to the CPI print at week’s end - no room for noise ahead of that.
QQQ Daily
QQQ is hanging right around $580, up about +0.28% on the day. Pretty clean action considering we’re inching closer to key macro data later this week. On the bigger picture, QQQ’s still one of the strongest tapes out there, up ~13% YTD, which has it running ahead of SPY. Even this past week it’s stacked another +3% as big tech continues to carry the load.
IWM Daily
IWM is trading around $236.75, down just under –0.6% on the day as small-cap sentiment cools a bit. What’s fueling this? Small caps got a real shot in the arm in August, rallying nearly 8% on the Russell 2000, massively outpacing S&P’s ~3% gain. A lot of dry powder piled in thanks to dovish Fed vibes and a rotation back into financials and cyclicals. Consensus remains rate cuts in September, but only time will tell.
All that said, flow’s looking crisp - some serious positioning happening in the names that are lighting up today. Let’s dive into the setups that matter for our paid audience below.