The Great Wall of Bezos
Notable Flow 11/13
CPI came in line this morning and the market chopped around all day remaining relatively flat. Shocker. Nonetheless there was some risk-off action at times during today’s session with bonds and the dollar ripping but people find new avenues of ideas via headlines and future events. Let’s take a peak into what Kian has pulled for us today.
Notable Flow:
PCG 0.00%↑ 22C 12/20 Exp
PRMB 0.00%↑ 29.3C 12/20 Exp
GEO 0.00%↑ 27C 03/21/2025 Exp
AMZN 0.00%↑ 300C 08/15/2025 Exp
PCG 0.00%↑ 22C 12/20 Exp
Vol: 12,120 OI: 1,193 Avg: $0.42 Prem: $504,239
The stock had its highest options volume in the past 90 days, with most of the volume favoring the call side, which made the call net premium hit its highest levels in the past 30 days. Whales particularly hit this chain with an initial volume of 5.36k contracts traded at the Ask for a premium of $241k. After that, the aggregate volume reached 12.5k. We must check the updated OI tomorrow to confirm how much volume is stuck overnight.
This flow comes on the heels of an announcement earlier today of Nvidia partnering with the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Plant to set up AI systems to manage and optimize the plant’s operations. It is popular consensus to be bullish anything Nvidia touches as they are pretty much the most prominent player in the entire NYSE. The semi giant reports earnings next week and could factor into PCG as a sympathy mover.
PRMB 0.00%↑ 29.3C 12/20 Exp
Vol: 4,779 OI: 1,532 Avg: $0.77 Prem: $367,210
This ticker recently appeared on the NYSE after the merger between BlueTriton Brands, Inc. and Primo Water Corp, which combined into a brand named Primo Brands Corp. Today, the volume of options has been the highest since the tickers updated. Whales seem optimistic about this merger and favor calls, which caused a positive spike in the call net premium with almost 5k contracts traded at the Ask in this chain.
Previous to this merger, Primo Waters reported its 2024 Q3 Earnings on 11/08:
Revenue of $511 million increased 8.8%, including a 7.4% contribution from organic growth
A Gross margin of 64.7% increased by 20 bps, and net income increased to $38 million
Adjusted EBITDA of $125 million, increased 11.4%, and Adjusted EBITDA margin of 24.4%, increased 60 bps
This chart below is quite literally the entirety of the historical price action shown on the 15 minute chart (LOL). With that being said, it also looks pretty solid and constructive moves upwards. This bet is seemingly just a bet on a positive reaction to a merger in strong market conditions as we trade around all time highs.
GEO 0.00%↑ 27C 03/21/2025 Exp
Vol: 7,139 OI: 65 Avg: $4.30 Prem: $3,070,206
With an initial volume spike of 2.1k contracts traded at the Ask, the aggregate volume tripled as the trading session progressed. With most fills at the Ask and some at the Mid, the best thing to do is to check the updated OI tomorrow during the pre-market session; if our guess is right, the new OI should be somewhere close to the 5k tomorrow. Despite missing analysts’ expectations in its last Earnings report 11/07, shares surged almost 100% in one week after the election results.
Popularly known as a Trump trade, GEO 0.00%↑ skyrocketed the night of the election having surged 88% to this point with investors looking for more upside. Having broke this mark of 27 earlier in the week, the stock is trading at levels not seen since 2018 indicating that it could continue to receive more attention going forward. Plenty of time behind this trade as we notice and keep watch of how it reacts to these old levels.
AMZN 0.00%↑ 300C 08/15/2025 Exp
Vol: 1,953 OI: 76 Avg: $3.85 Prem: $751,902
With a total volume of almost 2k contracts mostly traded at the Ask, this Whale expects a 41% move in 275 days, or at least that is what it will take for these calls to go ITM. AMZN 0.00%↑ has reached a new all-time high today.
The stock is up over 16% since the company announced its 2024 Q3 Earnings when it reported a Net sales increase of 11% compared to the 2023 Q4 and a Net income of $15.3 billion in the third quarter, or $1.43 per diluted share, compared with $9.9 billion, or $0.94 per diluted share, in third quarter 2023. Additionally, the company is getting ready for its Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals after reporting record sales of $12.4 billion in 2023, an increase of 9.6% compared to 2022.
Amazon is one of the largest company’s in the world and has yet to make that outstanding move that we have seen in other notable mega-cap stocks as it is currently up slightly over 48% YTD thanks to the recent surge. Bezos selling around 200-210 has held it underwater for quite some time and was reported yesterday that he only has about 13% left in his sales plan. Assuming that this comes to an end soon, this whale believes that the bigger picture move in the asset is yet to come. Amazon is constantly innovating and adapting to the current times with different strategies for growing the tech giant.
Plenty of time behind this trade and if this bull market is to continue throughout 2025, Amazon could be a leader in regards to mega-cap assets. Trading at all time highs, and above all relative moving average’s, the momentum is growing and sentiment is positive.
Thanks for joining us today, and we hope you find some of these whale ideas useful. If you enjoyed the read, likes are greatly appreciated.
Cheers,
Kian, Jersace, & Jon
Thanks, for sharing your analysis !