The most imporant CPI until the next one
Notable Flow 11/12
Consolidation is key for further upside, anon. That is the moral of the story today. Decent “cool-off” day across the board as many stocks and indices have become extended from relative moving average’s and need some time to set back up. In the meantime, let’s take a look at some setups presenting themselves behind the flow of whales.
Notable Flow:
CRM 0.00%↑ 300P STO 03/21/2025 Exp
TSM 0.00%↑ 200C 12/13 Exp
GPCR 0.00%↑ 50C 12/19/2025 Exp
GRAB 0.00%↑ 5.5C 04/17/2025 Exp
CRM 0.00%↑ 300P STO 03/21/2025 Exp
Vol: 963 OI: 896 Avg: $9.60 Prem: $924,580
This trader is placing a bullish bet by selling to open 950 contracts of these puts and receiving $912k on credit. The trader speculates that the stock price will not go below $300 by the expiration date, allowing the trader to collect the premium once the trade is closed and keep the profits since the contracts will expire worthless.
The stock has shown strong momentum, outperforming the broader market with a 52.2% gain over the past year compared to the S&P 500's 36.8% increase. Salesforce's recent financial performance has been impressive, with the company beating earnings estimates in each of the last four quarters. The company's push into AI, particularly with its new Agentforce tool, represents a significant growth catalyst that analysts believe is not yet fully priced into the stock.
CRM stock has formed a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern, suggesting potential upward momentum. The stock is also trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a strong uptrend. With a consensus analyst rating of "Strong Buy" and an average price target implying further upside.
While selling puts may not be for everybody, if you like the chart, you could even venture to buy dated calls for the same expiration and put on a risk-reversal trade. By selling the puts (300P) you could buy the 410C for the same expiration and price, making the trade “free” if the 300’s were to work.
TSM 0.00%↑ 200C 12/13 Exp
Vol: 19,560 OI: 310 Avg: $5.41 Prem: $10,576,323
With an initial spike of 10.6k contracts in a single trade, the aggregate volume almost doubled as the day went on. Although the other trades were not as significant in size and had mixed bid-ask volume, we still expect OI to update above 10k tomorrow morning. This could be a sympathy trade for NVDA 0.00%↑ Earnings, which will report on 11/20 after the market closes.
The company's recent financial performance has been impressive, with a better-than-expected 54% rise in quarterly earnings, driven by robust sales of AI chips. Looking to press the gas on the semiconductor theme, this whale is anticipating a good report from NVDA as previously mentioned, a sympathy trade. NVDA is expected to report guidance on their newest product Blackwell which could accelerate upwards momentum for the sector.
Pretty constructive chart as we are currently back-testing the previous ATH breakout while holding the 10DMA. I look at this inside day today as consolidation and a breather as it awaits a potential next leg up.
GPCR 0.00%↑ 50C 12/19/2025 Exp
Vol: 1,697 OI: 82 Avg: $8.32 Prem: $1,412,644
This one caught our attention as call premium hit the highest levels in the past 30 days, and the stock had its highest options volume in the past 60 days, with almost all of that volume on the call buy side. The stock will report its 2024 Q3 Earnings on 11/26, with analysts expecting it to report an EPS of - $0.19 and Revenues of $500 million.
The company's lead candidate, GSBR-1290, has shown strong potential as a best-in-class oral GLP-1 agonist for obesity treatment, with a Phase 2b study set to begin in Q4 2024. This positions GPCR well in the rapidly growing obesity treatment market. The company's robust pipeline, including four oral small molecule programs targeting various receptors for obesity treatment, provides multiple shots on goal (Stocktitan).
Analyst forecasts are optimistic, with an average price target of $86.8, representing significant upside potential from current levels. The company's focus on developing oral alternatives to injectable treatments in the lucrative obesity and diabetes markets could drive substantial growth if clinical trials continue to show positive results. Not much to note from a technical stance outside of the supportive trendline from IPO lows where it tends to bounce off of as shown below.
GRAB 0.00%↑ 5.5C 04/17/2025 Exp
Vol: 27,266 OI: 2,040 Avg: $0.44 Prem: $1,186,838
These whales are expecting the stock to keep moving towards the upside after the company reported its 2024 Q3 Earnings yesterday, 11/11, surprising investors with amazing results:
Revenue grew 17% year-over-year, or 20% on a constant currency basis, to $716 million
On-demand GMV grew 15% year-over-year, or 18% on a constant currency basis, to $4.7 billion
Profit for the quarter was positive at $15 million
Adjusted EBITDA improved by $62 million year-over-year to an all-time high of $90 million
Operating Cash Flow of $338 million in the third quarter and Adjusted Free Cash Flow of $76 million on a trailing 12-month basis
Additionally, the company increased its FY 2024 outlook Revenue to 17%-18% YoY from 14%-17% YoY and its Adjusted EBITDA to $308 million-$313 million from $250-270$ million.
Shares are surging today, with over 12% gains after this report, and upgrades are being received from institutions such as J.P Morgan and Evercore ISI Group to $8.00 by Evercore ISI, representing a 70.58% upside from current levels, further bolsters investor confidence.
Yesterday, the stock had its highest options volume in the past 90 days, and today, it has the second-highest volume. The call net premium reached its highest level in the past 30 days.
Additionally, Grab's strong balance sheet and financial flexibility position it well for future growth initiatives. A key catalyst to watch is the company's path to profitability, with analysts expecting positive EPS by 2025. The chart shows that GRAB is breaking out of a MASSIVE stage 1 base and heading into levels not seen since the beginning of 2022. The only moving average overhead, is the 200wk-MA.
Alright folks, hope you enjoyed today’s article and as always, likes are greatly appreciated.
Cheers,
Kian, Jersace, & Jon
For any1 interested, here are my Oct CPI estimates:
https://arkominaresearch.substack.com/p/oct-2024-cpi-estimate?r=1r1n6n