Unusual Flow
Recap April 6
Good afternoon all, pretty quick letter today just to touch on a few things that I would have covered yesterday alongside today’s flow bag. Overall, today was a snoozefest. After futures opened lower overnight on the back of Trump’s expletive-laden social media post threatening to turn Iran’s infrastructure into rubble, the market showed remarkable resilience today. Indices reversed that initial weakness almost immediately yesterday evening, grinding higher and spending most of the session today in the green. That said, the range was incredibly tight. The S&P 500 added roughly 0.4%, the Nasdaq gained 0.6%, and the Dow tacked on about .3%. Volume was thinner than usual with European markets closed for Easter Monday, but the fact that buyers stepped in despite the geopolitical noise tells you something about the underlying bid in this market.
The dominant headline driver remains the U.S.-Iran conflict, now entering its sixth week. Trump held a press conference this afternoon detailing the rescue of two airmen whose F-15E was shot down over Iran, calling it “one of the largest, most complex, most harrowing combat search and rescue missions ever attempted by the military.” He also reiterated his Tuesday 8 PM deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that “the entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night.” He acknowledged that elevated fuel costs could persist into the summer but drew a hard line: “We’re never going to let them have a nuclear weapon. And if we have to pay a little extra for fuel for a couple of months, we’ll do that.”
A 45-day ceasefire proposal is floating between mediators, and Trump called it “a significant step,” though he has not signed off. Iran rejected any temporary ceasefire, demanding permanent guarantees. Crude oil jumped from $112 to roughly $114 per barrel during the presser alone, and gas prices are sitting near $4/gallon nationally. The CPI print on Friday looms large as the next macro catalyst, along with Fed minutes on Wednesday and PCE data on Thursday. Raymond James noted that strong early-2026 economic momentum and a backwardated oil curve have prevented a sharper selloff, but the Tuesday deadline is the next major test.
Anyhow, let’s dig into the flow.
